本研究于CDR试点项目启动一年半后的2021年10月至12月进行,采用三轮改进的德尔菲法。在所有的调查中,都使用了基于网络的问卷。在每一轮调查中,调查邀请被发送给整个专家小组,无论他们是否参加前一轮调查,他们都同意参加。作为对德尔菲法的修改,在分析CDR试点项目的七份项目报告的基础上,提前准备了障碍、促进因素和实施策略清单,并在这些报告的基础上与当地政府官员进行了半结构化访谈。项目报告是一份关于CDR的结构化报告,由地方政府在财政年度结束时向国家政府提交。该报告将提交给国家政府,以确定需要解决的问题,以便在全国范围内扩大CDR项目。访谈由一位对CDR项目(HY)有很好的了解的研究人员进行。基于访谈的报告和转录,一名研究人员进行了内容总结分析,以提取障碍、促进因素和解决它们的实施策略(HY)。研究人员(HY, AA, KT)对提取的项目进行了讨论,并制定了障碍、促进因素的初始列表,以及障碍、促进因素的组合,以及解决障碍或促进因素的实施策略。实施战略按其实施主体国家政府和地方政府分类。 For example, the legislation for CDR was attributed to the national government, appointment of full-time staff to local governments, and gaining public awareness regarding both to the national and local governments.
德尔菲法在方法论上存在一定的弱点。与实验方法不同,它不能推断因果关系。然而,由于CDR是一项公共卫生政策,实验研究不容易进行,德尔菲法是最可靠的,可以就其障碍、促进因素的重要性以及实施战略的潜在有效性达成共识。我们所做的修改还涉及专家小组对障碍、促进因素和实施战略的评估存在的潜在偏见,这些评估在我们制定和提交初步清单时达成了共识。虽然最初的清单是根据项目报告和访谈制定的,但开发主要是由一个研究人员完成的。然而,德尔菲法确保了拒绝最初提出的项目和添加新项目的机会。因此,在编制初始列表时由于修改和方法上的弱点而造成的潜在偏差被最小化。由于本研究在负责CDR的地方政府官员的支持下招募了专家组,因此可能存在选择偏差。那些成为候选人的人可能有更接近地方政府官员的观点。然而,为了招募一个在CDR方面有丰富经验的小组,地方政府官员的支持是至关重要的。 The extrapolability of the results should be considered as the expert panel did not include personnel from all prefectures in Japan even though the panel was asked to evaluate barriers, facilitators, and implementation strategies for nationwide CDR implementation. For example, metropolitan cities were not equally included. Hence, context-specific issues might have been under-evaluated, which result in a failure to reach a consensus. Furthermore, the participating prefectures might have had a stronger interest in child mortality, which might have led to an underestimation of the barriers to CDR. Priorities were calculated based on the importance of barriers, facilitators, and the effectiveness of implementation strategies, but unequal patterns such as the weighting of importance and effectiveness was not considered. Some of the results of this study may also not be applicable to cultural settings in other countries. However, the major issues mentioned in the discussion, such as lack of legislation, multi-agency involvement, and citizens’ acceptance, were consistent with the results of previous studies conducted across different cultures.